Isabella County 15,430 DALYs/yr Pop. 64,565 · FIPS 26073
Clare County 8,198 DALYs/yr Pop. 30,013 · FIPS 26035 Midland County 14,335 DALYs/yr Pop. 82,884 · FIPS 26111
Gratiot Q3 2026
Mecosta Q4 2026
Washtenaw Q4 2026

Isabella County, Michigan - Health Burden Analysis

Planning-grade DALY framework using public county health data · 2026

15,430
DALYs/yr (Primary · frontier LE)
Frontier LE 89.1 yrs · YLL 9,915 + YLD 5,515 · 95% UI 14,459–16,481
10,579
DALYs/yr (Sensitivity · MI LE, remission-adj)
Michigan LE 78.6 yrs · YLL 5,067 + YLD 5,515
819.9
Mortality rate per 100k
▲ 4.7% above MI · ▲ 13.3% above US
$957M
Economic burden/year (Primary · frontier LE)
Human capital · Primary 15,430 DALYs
64,565
County population
Census ACS 2024 · Mount Pleasant
Planning model — not a validated county burden estimate. Primary: WHO/GBD Frontier LE 89.1 yrs + mental health remission adjustment (×0.50) = 15,430 DALYs (95% UI 14,459–16,481). Sensitivity (Michigan LE 78.6 yrs) = 10,579 DALYs. Monte Carlo n=10,000. Mixed-source: CDC PLACES 2024, CDC WONDER 2020–22, IHME GBD 2021 disability weights. → Full methods & data quality notes
Primary standard: Frontier LE 89.1 yrs + MH remission adjustment = 15,430 DALYs. Sensitivity: Michigan LE 78.6 yrs = 10,579 DALYs. YLD varies with MH prevalence toggle (29.8% raw vs. 14.9% remission-adj).
Jump to: KPIs Charts Economic Burden DALY Table Methodology Key Findings Recommendations Trends
819.9
Total mortality rate per 100k (MDHHS 2020)
▲ 4.7% vs MI (783.1) · ▲ 13.3% vs US (723.6)
21–26%
Poverty rate (varies by source †)
Well above MI avg (15%) regardless of source
43.1%
Adult obesity (CDC PLACES 2024)
▲ vs MI 36.7% · ▲ vs US 35.3%
15,430
MI Planning
|
10,579
GBD Standard
Estimated DALYs/year · YLL + YLD
±20% uncertainty
$726M
Economic burden (human capital)
Indirect productivity losses only
176,938:1
HRSA psychiatrist shortage ratio (HPSA) ‡
18.9× worse than MI avg (9,371:1)

DALYs by Condition

Disability-Adjusted Life Years · Michigan LE 78.6 · sorted by burden

Interactive charts use Michigan LE planning standard. Hero stats reflect primary (frontier LE + remission-adj = 15,430 DALYs). Use MH prevalence toggle above to apply remission adjustment.

Abbreviations: DALY = disability-adjusted life year · YLL = years of life lost (premature death) · YLD = years lived with disability · MH = mental health · SUD = substance use · CVD = cardiovascular disease · COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · DM = type-2 diabetes

Comorbidity Co-occurrence — Expected Counts

Expected cases with both conditions simultaneously · independence model · Isabella County n=64,565 · hover cell for DW product & DALY correction

DM+COPD highest pair (403 expected co-occurring cases). Used in v10 comorbidity correction: multiplicative DW model (DWnet = 1−∏(1−DWi)) reduces total YLD by 3.4% (CF=0.966), −189 DALYs. Top DALY-correction pairs: Cancer+SUD (−22.7), MH+SUD (−21.6), MH+Cancer (−20.7).

Abbreviations: MH = mental health · SUD = substance use · CVD = cardiovascular disease · COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · DM = type-2 diabetes · DW = disability weight · DALY = disability-adjusted life year

Mortality Rate Comparison

Deaths per 100,000 · MDHHS 2020 pre-pandemic baseline

Social Determinants vs Michigan Average

% of population · Multiple sources 2020–2025

Economic Burden by Condition

Annual productivity loss · DALYs × $62K GDP per capita (human-capital method, Michigan LE) · sorted by burden

Cancer (~$167M/yr) and substance use (~$156M/yr) carry the largest measurable economic burden — together roughly half the county's productivity loss. Each averted DALY ≈ $62,000 in recovered productivity, the ROI basis for grant budgets. Excludes direct medical costs. Reactive to the LE & MH toggles above.

Abbreviations: MH = mental health · SUD = substance use · CVD = cardiovascular disease · COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · DM = type-2 diabetes · DALY = disability-adjusted life year

Abbreviations: DALY Disability-Adjusted Life Year  ·  YLL Years of Life Lost (premature mortality)  ·  YLD Years Lived with Disability  ·  MH Mental Health Disorders (F30–F48)  ·  SUD Substance Use Disorders (F10–F19)  ·  CVD Cardiovascular Disease (I20–I51)  ·  IHD Ischemic Heart Disease  ·  COPD Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (J44)  ·  DM Diabetes Mellitus Type 2 (E11)  ·  DW Disability Weight (IHME GBD 2021)  ·  LE Life Expectancy  ·  UI Uncertainty Interval (Monte Carlo 2.5th–97.5th percentile)  ·  MRP Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (CDC PLACES method)  ·  HPSA Health Professional Shortage Area  ·  FPL Federal Poverty Level  ·  VSL Value of Statistical Life  ·  NAS Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome

Economic Burden of Disease

Two methodological approaches - use controls above to switch

Human Capital Approach

$726M
Primary (15,430 DALYs)
|
$1,027M
Sensitivity (10,579 DALYs)
Both × $62,000 (MI GDP per capita 2024). Range ±20%.
Estimates foregone productivity due to premature death and disability. Standard in academic literature. Does not include direct medical costs.

Value of Statistical Life (HHS 2026)

~$4.9B
Range: $2.3B – $7.5B (HHS 2026 low/high) · ~461 deaths × $10.5M
Social willingness to pay to prevent deaths. HHS VSL $13.4M income-adjusted for Isabella County ($10.5M; elasticity 0.4). Method used by EPA, DOT, HHS for policy analysis.
VSL does not change when you toggle the LE reference - it is based on deaths, not DALYs. Human Capital estimate updates live. Source: HHS ASPE Standard Values 2026; Michigan LE: MDHHS lifeUSMI.asp

Disease Burden Detail - Live Calculation

Change controls above to recalculate · Michigan LE 78.6 yrs · No discounting or age-weighting (standard DALY convention)

Condition (ICD-10) Prevalence Mort. Rate Deaths/yr Remaining LE YLL (MI) YLL (GBD) DW YLD DALYs Data Quality

† Poverty: MDHHS 2020 PCNA 26.5% below 100% FPL; Census ACS 5-yr 2024: 21.9%; QuickFacts 2020–24: 19.0% - different ACS products, years, and student-population treatment. Not directly comparable.  ‡ HRSA HPSA ratio is FTE-weighted for Central Michigan Service Area - not a simple county headcount against 64,565 residents.   Full methodology notes →

Methodology Evolution
How the estimate changed — and why
Each refinement step added methodological rigor. Numbers are not contradictory — they answer different questions.
1
Initial estimate · v1–v2
11,710
Michigan LE 78.6 yrs · Mean-age YLL · Raw CDC PLACES prevalence · No uncertainty bounds
MH ranked #1 · DALYs/yr
2
Frontier LE added · v3
16,558
WHO GHE frontier LE 89.1 yrs applied · Enables international GBD comparison · Raw prevalence still used
Cancer moves to #1 under this standard
3
MH remission adj. · v5
−1,128
CDC PLACES reports lifetime-diagnosed prevalence · Active burden ×0.50 remission factor · 7,792 active cases
MH drops from #1 → #4
Final · v5 primary
15,430
Frontier LE + remission adj. · Monte Carlo n=10,000 · 95% UI 14,459–16,481 · Cancer #1
Cancer #1 · CVD #2 · SUD #3 · MH #4
Note: 11,710 (Michigan LE · no remission adjustment) remains valid as a local planning-grade sensitivity and for comparison with prior county documents. The 16,558 figure reflects frontier LE before the remission correction. 15,430 is the methodologically preferred primary estimate for cross-county and cross-country GBD comparison.

Key Findings

🚨 Mental Health — #3 (MI) / #4 (Primary) · 1,733 DALYs

CDC PLACES 29.8% adult prevalence (lifetime-diagnosed). Remission-adjusted active burden: 7,792 cases / 1,733 DALYs → #4 under primary standard. Under MI LE without remission adjustment, MH is #1 (2,713 DALYs). Under primary (frontier LE + remission-adj): Cancer #1, CVD #2, SUD #3. Mental health access crisis remains regardless: HRSA ratio 176,938:1 — 18.9× worse than state average. → AI solutions

📊 GBD/WHO Standard Ranking

Primary (frontier LE + MH remission-adj): Cancer #1 (4,057), CVD #2 (3,302), SUD #3 (2,904), MH #4 (1,733). Total primary burden: 15,430 DALYs (95% UI 14,459–16,481). Planning sensitivity (MI LE): 10,579 DALYs. Monte Carlo n=10,000 propagates uncertainty from mortality (Poisson), prevalence (beta), and disability weights (±15–25%).

🚨 Cancer - #2 Burden (2,693 DALYs)

130 deaths/year at mean age 67 (11.6 yrs remaining). 7.7% county prevalence. Both YLL (1,509) and YLD (1,184) components are substantial. Mortality rate 175.1/100k - 8.7% above Michigan. → AI solutions

🚨 SUD - #3 Burden (2,516 DALYs)

Kills at age ~44 (34.6 years remaining) - highest YLL per death of any condition. 37 deaths/year. NAS rate 583/100k births. Maternal tobacco 22% = 3.4× US avg. → AI solutions

🚨 Stroke Mortality 49% Above State

59.4 vs Michigan 39.9/100k - largest relative gap. Associated with hypertension, poverty-related access barriers, limited neurology. Each prevented death: ~$10.5M societal cost (VSL). → AI solutions

⚠ Poverty as Root Driver

19–26% poverty by source. 45.5% below 200% FPL. Food insecurity 16.4% vs MI 13.7%. Obesity 43.1% vs MI 36.7%. Structural driver behind all elevated health indicators.

✓ Relative Strengths

HIV prevalence lower (65.2 vs 163.1/100k). Eviction rate 1.5% vs state 3.3%. Child blood lead lower (1.4% vs 3.1%). Annual checkup rate 77.6% reflects CMU student health access.

Evidence-Based Recommendations

Prioritized by DALY impact · See AI implementation roadmap →

1
Telepsychiatry + collaborative care support in primary care

Mental health, SUD · adults ≥18 with MH/SUD · evidence mixed for severe mental illness; use local evaluation before scaling

Moderate / evaluate
2
AI-assisted cancer screening + navigation

Cancer · 7.7% prevalence · 130 deaths/yr · Stage-shift intervention at age ~67

Strong
3
MAT telehealth for opioid use disorder in prenatal care

SUD, NAS · Pregnant women with OUD · NAS rate 583/100k births · 37 deaths/yr age 44

Moderate–Strong
4
Community health worker–led hypertension control

IHD, stroke · Adults ≥40 with hypertension · 32.1% county hypertension prevalence · priority: below 200% FPL

Strong
5
Tobacco cessation: quitline + NRT via Medicaid

COPD, CVD, cancer · Priority: pregnant women (22% tobacco rate) · 18.6% adult smoking rate

Strong

Age-adjusted CDC PLACES estimates · All y-axes start at 0 · Gaps = no county-level estimate that year · Hover for 95% CI

Obesity

Latest: 43.1%▲ Worsening

High Blood Pressure

Latest: 35.5%▲ Worsening

Current Smoking

Latest: 18.6%▼ Improving

Binge Drinking

Latest: 17.5%▼ Improving

Diabetes

Latest: 11.6%▲ Worsening

Mental Health Distress

Latest: 20.8%▲ Worsening

Asthma

Latest: 12.1%▲ Worsening

Uninsured (18–64)

Latest: 10.3%▼ Improving

Source: CDC PLACES 2020, 2022, 2023, 2025 releases (data years 2017–2023). BRFSS-based model estimates, FIPS 26073. View all 16 indicators →